Curve and Bound

the measured curve and the argued bound

Open forecasts: 0 · Ledger

  1. Measured

    In METR’s Frontier Risk Report of 19 May 2026, the public frontier in February–March 2026 is about 12 hours at 50% and about 1.5 hours at 80% on Time Horizon 1.1. The 50% interval is 5 hours to 61 hours.

    Source: METR, Frontier Risk Report, 19 May 2026.

    METR warns that measurements above 16 hours are unreliable with the current task suite. The warning was added 8 May 2026.

    Source: metr.org/time-horizons

    METR’s update log, retrieved 9 October 2026, says the time-horizons page is no longer actively updated. Note dated 8 September 2026.

    Source: metr.org/time-horizons

  2. Extrapolated

    Not opened.

  3. Argued

    Bound. The claims live on that page. The lines below stay empty.

    Scientific discovery. Instrument:

    Long-horizon agency. Instrument:

    Physical manipulation. Instrument:

    Institutional coordination. Instrument:

    Self-improvement. Instrument: